Mugsy Margarit A friend from Canada, on Facebook, shared their knowledge

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"I do my best to not be alarmist. Thanks to the support of you all, I've been able to dedicate more time to writing and researching - but, because I'm me, the pieces I'm working on are tackling things that are very, very difficult to approach without emotion. I know a lot of people follow me because it's hard to find sources out there that avoid sensationalism - something I'm mindful of, always.

That being said, a significant amount of people have reached out to me over the past month with questions related to asylum. At the time, I was in absolutely no position to answer those incredibly important concerns. It wouldn't be fair, or ethical. But, having regular Americans tell me that they've prepared 'bug out bags' spurred me to find out.

So, this is my best shot. I've done quite a bit of research and reached out to immigration lawyers etc (by the way, a HUGE thank you to those that offered their expertise, and for free by the way. There are still a lot of good people out there).

Please, please, please, please reach out to experts and lawyers before even beginning to consider actions that will most probably change your entire life. I'm a Genealogist and a writer. My knowledge of the subject matter in this post doesn't go past my own research and opinions of those I've reached out to. And, you don't know me from a hole in the ground - I could be a zebra.

Sorry, that's quite a bit of intro. But thanks to those that are still with me.

So, here's my best attempt to boil down and distill an extremely complex, emotionally loaded, and still unthinkable topic - Americans seeking asylum, organized by localities.

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Canada: Cautious, but open

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1. The Basics & Legal Framework

Canada is a signatory of the 1951 Refugee Convention and 1967 Protocol, which means that and under its Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA), any person can claim asylum if they face -

"A well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, political opinion, nationality, or membership in a social group."

In addition, under the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) (between the U.S. and Canada), most claimants must apply for asylum in the first "safe" country they arrive in. Currently, as far as I have discerned, the US is still considered 'safe' to the Canadian government. At least, right now.

Well, what does that mean?

2. Parameters

Under current regulations, you MUST be able to prove the following to the Canadian government:

A) A real and significant risk of harm if you return to the US

B) The harm is not random, but targeted — because of who you are or what you believe.

C) The persecution can come from the government, or from non-state actors (like militias, hate groups, or extremist organizations) IF you can demonstrate the government is unable or unwilling to protect you.

Examples:

A member of a minority group and political activist in a Southern U.S. state is repeatedly harassed by police, receives death threats from white supremacist groups, and is denied police protection. The government fails to act.

A Muslim woman in a far-right U.S. state is fired for wearing a hijab, targeted by anti-Muslim groups, and has her mosque vandalized repeatedly with no police action.

A journalist reporting on government corruption is arrested multiple times, physically assaulted by police, and publicly threatened by government officials or media aligned with the regime.

A trans woman is denied healthcare, harassed by officials, and publicly outed by local media. She’s assaulted multiple times and state authorities refuse to act. She fears for her life and has no social support network.

These things, alone, do not qualify:

- General fear of authoritarianism, Trump, or civil unrest

- Fear of losing rights unless you’re specifically targeted

- Disliking the government or its policies

- Being in a political minority in your state/country

3. What 'unsafe' means

STCA includes a provision that Canada can suspend the agreement if the U.S. no longer qualifies as a 'safe' country. Things that would effect this view:

- Courts are packed or politicized.

- Protesters or political dissidents are criminalized.

- LGBTQ+ groups, journalists, or activists are targeted systematically, especially if government sanctioned or encouraged

- Election interference or authoritarian control becomes normalized and undeniable

4. Additional Considerations

- Canadian-US relations are rapidly deteriorating

- Public sympathy for American citizens in Canada is still very high, and could drive political will to allow exceptions.

- A flood of American claimants might trigger concern over systems being overwhelmed, but high-profile, well-documented cases (e.g. whistleblowers, persecuted journalists, activists) could be accepted on a case-by-case basis.

- The Canadian election, held on April 28th, could significantly impact this entire system if the Conservatives form a majority

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Mexico: Politically delicate, but technically possible

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1. The Basics & Framework

Mexico also abides by the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Cartagena Declaration, which broadens the definition of a refugee to include those fleeing widespread violence, human rights violations, and threats due to generalized breakdown in public order.

This could be used more flexibly in favor of American claimants fleeing an authoritarian system, if the political will is there.

2. Institutional Capacity & Response

Mexico’s refugee system is underfunded and overwhelmed, primarily focused on handling Central and South American asylum seekers. They would be very hesitant to place additional burden on this system - especially considering Mexico would go out of its way to not upset the US.

3. Additional Considerations

- Mexico would be very reluctant to provoke the U.S. government by making implying or making statements about democratic backsliding north of the border

- The most likely scenario is quietly accepting U.S. citizens under humanitarian grounds, especially if documented persecution exists

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So, what's the bottom line?

Both countries would accept asylum seekers, but not broadly - at least at first. Seeking asylum in Canada would most likely have better chances for success. Both countries would likely respond to clear human rights violations - which have arguably already occurred.

So what can you do?

If you fear for your safety or the safety of your loved ones, you NEED to start documenting instances of real, personal, and targeted persecution. Go into as much detail as possible. Keep a paper journal and also back the information up digitally in as secure a way as possible. DO NOT keep this information on your phone or on any device that you will connect to public Wifi/Mobile Hotspots.

Remember, simply opposing an authoritarian government wouldn’t be enough on its own. You will need details to back your case.

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So, that's my best shot. If you are an expert or are well versed in this topic, I encourage you to supplement this information with your own in the comments. If I got anything wrong, ABSOLUTELY tell me, and I'll edit immediately.

Hopefully none of you will need this, but if there's anything I've learned in the past few months, it's that access to information is worth more than gold.

Be safe out there and look out for each other. Fact check everything you see, including the things I post.

Good luck to my American friends. We see what's happening. You're not alone.

Hold the line. Elbows Up.

#trumpcanadawatch #ElbowsUp #canada #CanadaImmigration #asylum #asylumseekers